Pension Reform in Central and Eastern Europe -1-
İÇİNDEKİLERTable of Contents Foreword Pension Reform in Hungary and Poland: A Comparative Overview Elaine Fultz Early difficulties in implementation Disability vs. retirement Deferred private benefit issues Participation, market structure, and performance of the new pension funds Distribution of the burden of transition costs Chapter 1 The Hungarian Pension System Before and After the 1998 Reform Maria Augusztinovics (coordinator), Robert I. Gal, Agnes Matits, Levente Mate, Andrds Simonovits, and jdnos Stahl Terminology 1. The pre-reform scene 1.1. Demographic and economic background 1.2. The pension system before the 1998 reform 1.3. Reasons for and expected results of the 1998 reform 2. Substantial elements of the 1998 reform 2.1. Changes in the public pillar 2.2. Enactment of the mandatory private pillar 3. Early post-reform experience 3.1. Subsequent legislative changes in 1998-2000 3.2. Transition of people to the mixed system 3.3. Results and problems in the public pillar 3.4. The initial performance of the mandatory private pillar4. Conclusions 4.1. The costs of transition 4.2. Other major issues References Chapter 2 The Polish Pension Reform of 1999 Agnieszka CMori-Dominczak Acronyms 1. The pre-reform scene 1.1. Demographic and economic background 1.2. The pre-reform pension system 1.3. Reasons for reform and expected results 2. Substantial elements of the reform 2.1. Changes to the public tier 2.2. Implementation of the private tier 3. Early post-reform experience 3.1. Results and problems with reform of the public tier 3.2. Transition to the mixed system 3.3. Impact of the private scheme on the public tier 3.4. Initial performance of the private tier 4. Conclusions References Appendix A: Investment restrictions Appendix B: Long-term simulation results - sensitivity analysis TABLES The Hungarian Pension System Before and After the 1998 Reform Table 1 Age-structure and demographic dependency Table 2 Major macroeconomic indicators Table 3 Pensions in 1996, by year of retirement Table 4 Pension insurance contribution rates Table 5 Contribution gains (+) and losses (-) in 2002 Table 6 MPPF members among the economically active population, by age group Table 7 The logistic regression model for choice of switching Table 8 Divergence in the data on employees' contribution Table 9 The 'no-reform scenario' for contributions and pensions Table 10 Effects of reform and post-reform measures on the financial balance of the of the public pillarTable 11 Changes in the numbers of MPPFs Table 12 Numbers and survival chances of MPPFs by groups of founders Table 13 The main characteristics of MPPFs in 2000, by groups of founders Table 14 The changing portfolios of MPPFs Table 15 Investment management performances in 2000 Table 16 Calculation for the six-months internal rate of efficiency Table 17 The compounded value of 1998-2000 contributions to MPPFs Table 18 A summary of 'pure' transition Table 19 A summary of obfuscated transition The Polish Pension Reform of 1999 Table 1 Total fertility rate in Poland, 1970-1999 Table 2 Longevity in Poland,1970-1999 Table 3 Demographic assumptions Table 4 Expenditures of FUS as a percentage of the GDP in the 1990s Table 5 Basic elements of the preliminary proposals for pension reform in Poland Table 6 Labour market and GDP assumptions, 1995=100 Table 7 Pension system expenditures and deficit as % of GDP, 2000-2050 Table 8 Comparison of the old and new pension system Table 9 Social security contribution rates as a percentage of gross wage Table 10 Error percentage by document type Table 11 Old-age contributions transferred to open pension funds (in PLN M) Table 12 Expenditures and deficit/surplus of public pension system - with and without introduction of funded tier Table 13 Basic information on pension funds in Poland Table 14 Transfers of membership between open pension funds Table 15 Dead accounts in open pension funds Table 16 Account status and internal rates of return,January 2000-June 2001 Table 17 Consolidated profit and loss account for pension fund societies in 2000 CHARTS The Hungarian Pension System Before and After the 1998 Reform Chart 1 Routes of contributions Chart 2 Real value of pensions and wages Chart 3 Size distribution of MPPFs at the end of 2000 Chart 4 Two examples of the age distribution of the MPPF membership in 2000 Chart 5 The total asset values of MPPFs, 1997-2000 Chart 6 The concentration of assets in the MPPF marketChart 7 The portfolio of total assets of MPPFs at the end of 2000 Chart 8 The performance of MPPFs in 2000 Chart 9 Annual net rates of return in MPPFs in 1998-2000 The Polish Pension Reform of 1999 Chart 1 Births and deaths in Poland,1990-2050 Chart 2 Demographic projections Chart 3 GDP and employment in Poland (cumulative indices, 1989=100) Chart 4 Unemployment rate in Poland, 1990-2000 Chart 5 Wages and GDP per capita in Poland (cumulative indices, 1989=100) Chart 6 Pensioners and insured persons in the social security system Chart 7 Average pensions relative to average wage, 1990-2000 Chart 8 Simulated replacement rates for birth groups 1949-1974, average wage earner Chart 9 Second tier administrative structure Chart 10 Projected size of second tier benefits (as % of average wage) Chart 11 Results of changes in contribution accounting Chart 12 Cumulative membership of private pension funds, 1999 Chart 13 Age and sex distribution of open pension fund membership, March 2001 Chart 14 Participation of 1949-68 groups in private pension funds Chart 15 Pension fund members as percentage of insured people Chart 16 Effective contribution for public old age system, 2000-2050 Chart 17 Reasons given by insured persons for differing pension choices Chart 18 Outflow to funded tier vs. deficit/surplus in pay-as-you-go Chart 19 Projected number of old-age pensioners receiving benefits from the old and new system under the reform, 2001-2050 Chart 20 Financing of pensions, 2000-2050 Chart 21 Transition costs and sources of financing Chart 22 Cumulative transition costs, 2000-2050 Chart 23 Revenues, expenditures and assets of pension funds, 2000-2050 Chart 24 OFE assets, January 2000 - June 2001 Chart 25 Cumulative membership and assets of pension funds, March 2001 Chart 26 Factors influencing the choice of pension fund (based on consumer survey) Chart 27 Structure of OFE investment portfolio, January 2000-June 2001 Chart 28 Nominal rates of return for funds (June 1999-May 2001) FRAMEWORKS Framework 1 Options for providing annuities in Poland Framework 2 Vision for ZUS  |
