European Urban & Regional Studies
İÇİNDEKİLERCONTENTS Foreword Acknowledgements About the authors List of acronyms Part I Overview 1 Where do we want to go? 1.1 Two questions 1.1.1 What is social budgeting? 1.1.2 Why do countries need social budgeting? 1.2 Contents and central objective of this book Part II Designing a social accounting system 2 Introduction 2.1 Basic guidelines for the formal construction of a social accounting system (SAS) 3 Methodology and database 3.1 Standard classifications of revenue and expenditure 3.1.1 Types of revenue 3.1.2 Types of expenditure 3.2 Structuring the revenue of an SAS 3.2.1 Revenue by legal category 3.2.2 Revenue by sector of the economy 3.3 Structuring the expenditure of an SAS 3.3.1 Expenditure by economic category 3.3.2 Expenditure by social function 3.4 The institutional classification 3.4.1 The institutions 3.4.2 Revenue by category 3.4.3 Expenditure by category 4 Bringing all options together: Blueprints for the table structure of a social accounting system 4.1 Annual matrices 4.2 Time series 5 A work routine for data compilation 6 The United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) and its links to a social accounting system 6.1 The relationship between the SAS and the SNA 6.2 The SAS in a sectoral economic context 6.3 The SAS and redistribution of income 6.3.1 Current accounts 6.3.2 Accumulation accounts 6.3.3 Balance sheets 6.4 The SAS and the SNA 1993 social accounting matrices 7 The social accounting system and other statistical data systems related to social protection finances 7.1 Other national statistical data systems 7.2 International statistical data systems on social protection finances Part III The Social Budget 8 Modelling expenditure and revenue 8.1 Alternative modelling approaches 8.1.1 The classical budgeting approach 8.1.2 Microsimulation 8.1.3 Systemapproaches 8.2 The modular system approach of the ILO 8.2.1 The demographic submodel 8.2.2 The labour supply submodel 8.2.3 The economic submodel 8.2.4 The social protection model 8.2.5 The government model 8.2.6 Methodological extension: Feedback between social protection and the economy 8.3 The time horizon Part IV Two case studies 9 Case studies of Panama and Ukraine9.1 Panama 9.1.1 A young population ageing 9.1.2 Economic development and employment: The labour market balance 9.1.3 The consolidated public sector budget 9.1.4 The Social Budget and its components 9.2 Ukraine 9.2.1 Demographic development 9.2.2 The economic context 9.2.3 The social reality 9.2.4 The social protection system 9.2.5 Simulating and projecting the Social Budget 9.2.6 Summing up Part V General conclusions 10 Intended messages Annexes I Issues brief: Interdependencies between macroeconomic development and social protection II Glossary of the national accounts definitions III Glossary of the social accounting system IV Glossary of terms used for projections V Social budgeting data requirements: A checklist VI Blueprints for the table structure of an SAS Bibliography Index List of examples 8.1 Egypt: Effects of alternative demographic assumptions on population projections 8.2 Labour force projections in Egypt 8.3 A labour market balance for Panama 8.4 Turkey: The effect of an increase in the contribution ceiling 8.5 The bi-variant PSRE matrix of the ILO generic model 8.6 A standard financial development pattern of an African pension scheme 8.7 Building a health care model 8.8 Australia: A health care utilization function 8.9 Turkey: The structure of a national health budget, 1995 8.10 Poland: Projections of poverty indices 8.11 Ireland: Simulation of alternative benefit duration8.12 South Africa: Assessing the financial development of the Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) 8.13 Turkey: A Social Budget List of tables Notes: E = Example (e.g. table E8.9 is found in example 8.9, in Chapter 8) A = Appendix (e.g. table AVI.4 is found in Appendix VI) 1.1 A typical summary of a national Social Budget 3.1 Revenue budget lines of the Bulgarian National Social Security Institute (NSSI) and the national Unemployment Fund (UF), 1996 3.2 Expenditure budget lines of the Bulgarian National Social Security Institute (NSSI) and the national Unemployment Fund (UF), 1996 3.3 Germany: Revenue of the SAS by legal category, 1960-97 3.4 Germany: Revenue of the SAS by economic sector, 1960-97 3.5 Germany: Expenditure of the SAS by economic category, 1960-97 3.6 Germany: Expenditure of the SAS by social function, 1960-97 3.7 Calculating the fiscal balance of institution n 3.8 Germany: Calculating the balancing item of the SAS, 1960-97 3.9 Germany: Calculating the balancing item of pension insurance, 1960-97 E8.1 Egypt: Key assumptions for population projections E8.2 Egypt: Labour market participation rates in the base year of projectior E8.3 Long-term labour market balance: The example of Panama 8.1 Demographic structure of a young African pension scheme E8.5a PSRE matrix of formerly active male persons at retirement E8.5b Matrix of new male pension amounts E8.9a Turkey: Health care expenditure and financing, 1995-2000 E8.9b Main financial variables of the Turkish health budget, 1995-2000 E8.9c Other initial inputs and start values of the Turkish health budget, 1995 E8.11 Ireland: Distribution of the unemployed by duration of unemployment, October 1996 E8.12a South Africa: Economic assumptions for the projections of the UIF. base case, 1994-2000 E8.12b South Africa: Frequency and duration of benefits, UIF, 1993-95 E8.12c South Africa: Average monthly benefit amounts and replacement rates, UIF, 1995 E8.12d South Africa: Summary of projection results of the UIF, 1990-2000 E8.13 Turkey: A Social Budget projection, 1995-2000 9.1 Panama: Demographic and economic frame, 1997-2050 9.2 Panama: Consolidated public sector account, 1997-2050 93 Ukraine: Estimated social expenditure and financing, 1995-96 9:4 Ukraine: Assumed labour force participation rates 9,5 Ukraine: Economic scenarios (annual growth rates as percentages) 9.6 Ukraine: Reference wage/past service matrix 9.7 Ukraine: Contribution rates for the basic scenario 1998-2015 9.8 Ukraine's Social Budget: Expenditure and income, 1998-2015 9.9 Ukraine: Structure of social expenditure and revenue, 1998-2015 9.10 Ukraine: Sensitivity to labour productivity growth assumptions 9.11 Ukraine: Sensitivity to wage growth assumptions 9.12 Ukraine: Assumed values of elasticities for feedback tests List of figures Notes: E = Example (e.g. figure E8.1 is found in example 8.1, in Chapter 8) A = Appendix (e.g. figure AI.1 is found in Appendix 1) 1.1 The road map to establishing a Social Budget 3.1 Balancing item of the German social protection system 5.1 The SAS data compilation process 6.1 Flows of funds between economic sectors and the SAS 8.1 The social budgeting process 8.2 Social protection as an open system 8.3 Hierarchical dependency structure of the ILO model 8.4 Basic procedure of the population projection model E8.1a Egypt: Total population development E8.1b Egypt: Old-age dependency ratios E8.1c Egypt: Youth dependency ratios E8.1d Egypt: Total dependency ratios E8.2 Egypt: Total and female labour force development (variants I and II) 8.5 Blueprint for a labour market balance '8.6 Calculating a labour market balance 8.7 Transition from adolescence over active contributions and retirement to death 8.8 Demographic transformation from t to t + 1 in a pension scheme for all ages x and sex s E8.4 Turkey: Wage ceiling effect on the contribution income of the SSK E8.6a PAYG and national cost of a typical African pension scheme (65 years) E8.6b Financing options of a typical African pension scheme (without conversion of the provident fund accounts) (65 years) E8.6c Reserve levels as a multiple of benefit expenditure of a typical African pension scheme (without conversion), 1992-2057 E8.7 Building a health care (HC) module of the Social Budget model E8.8 Australia: Number of health services utilized per capita and year by age group and sex, 1996/97 E8.1Oa Poland: Poverty criterion and number of households below the poverty line, 1996-2020 (two alternatives)E8.1Ob Poland: Poverty gap as percentage of GDP for different poverty lines. 1996-2020 E8.lOc Poland: The Gini coefficient, 1997-2019 E8.11 Ireland: Distribution of the unemployed by duration of unemployment, October 1996 E8.12a/b South Africa: PAYG rate and funding ratio of the UIF, 1996-2000 8.9 The government model: Inputs from other model components 9.1 Panama: Population pyramids, 1997, 2025 and 2050 9.1 (Continued) 9.2 Panama: Public expenditure structure, 1997-2050 9.3 Panama: Public debt as a percentage of GDP, 1997-2050 9.4 Panama: Social Budget as a percentage of GDP, 1991-2050: Economic target scenario 9.5 Panama: Social Budget as a percentage of GDP, 1991-2050: Alternative economic scenario 9.6 Ukraine: Employment growth for alternative scenarios 9.7 Ukraine: Unemployment rates for alternative scenarios 9.8 Ukraine: Social expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) 9.9 Ukraine: PAYG total contribution rates (as a percentage of wage funds) 9.10 Ukraine: Public finance deficit (as a percentage of GDP) 9.11 Ukraine: Pension expenditure as a percentage of GDP 9.12 Ukraine: Unemployment benefit expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) 9.13 Ukraine: Social assistance and housing (as a percentage of GDP) 9.14 Ukraine: Public finance deficit (as a percentage of GDP) 9.15 Ukraine: Share of labour costs in GDP 9.16 Ukraine: Employment-enhancing social expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) 9.17 Ukraine: GDP growth rates (after feedback) 9.18 Ukraine: Employment growth (after feedback) 9.19 Ukraine: Unemployment rate (after feedback) 9.20 Ukraine: Change of indexation - Pension expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) 9.21 Ukraine: Change of indexation - PAYG contribution rate 9.22 Ukraine: Change of indexation - Labour costs (as a percentage of GDP) 9.23 Ukraine: Change of indexation - Social expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) 9.24 Ukraine: Pension expenditure - Effects of an increased retirement age A1.1 Interdependencies between the economy and a social protection system AI.2 Production of GDP, its use and primary distribution AI.3 Private households' disposable income, consumption and savings AI.4 Long-term development of the world inflation rate, 1961-97 AI.5 Number of countries affected by hyperinflationary waves (with annual CPI inflation above 30 per cent and above 50 per cent) AI.6 Anticyclical development of the western German Social Budget, 1961-97 AI.7 The composition of primary labour income AI.8 Japan: Social expenditure ratio and trade balance, 1980-97 AI.9 Germany: Social expenditure ratio and trade balance, 1980-97 AI.10 United States: Social expenditure ratio and trade balance, 1980-97 A1.11 General government accounts: Central government (blueprint) A1. 12 General government accounts: State (provincial) governments (blueprint) AI.13 General government accounts: Consolidated local (municipality) governments (blueprint) AI.14 General government accounts: Consolidated social security institutions (blueprint) AI.15 General government accounts: Consolidated (blueprint) AVI.l Revenue by legal category and institution (yeart) AVI.2 Revenue by sector of the economy and institution (year t) AVI.3 Revenue by legal category, sector of the economy and institution i (year t) AVI4 Expenditure by economic category and institution (year t) AVI.5 Expenditure by social function and institution (year t) AVI.6 Expenditure by social function, economic category and institution (year t) AVI.7 Expenditure by economic category, social function and institution i (year t ) AVI.8 Transfers between institutions (year t) AVI.9 Revenue by legal category AVI. 10 Revenue by sector of the economy AVI. 11 Expenditure by economic category AVI. 12 Expenditure by social function AVI. 13 Expenditure by institution AVI. 14 TheSAS fiscal balance  |
